College Basketball Wagering - Volatile Month

Watching Florida last March was bearing witness to a true dominant squad coasting to a national title against an extremely tough field.

Watching that same Florida team last January afforded few glimpses into the dominating and efficient squad that was about to be forged. There was little indication the team of freshmen and sophomores was about to go on a tear that would see them romp through the tough SEC and make decisive, clinical sense of March Madness.

So be careful what you read into the play of some of the preseason favorites as the calendar turns to 2007. Things are seldom what they seem in January, for better or for worse.

There are plenty of reasons why a team's play can fluctuate so wildly within a college basketball season.

For starters, these are university kids. They are teenagers who just got back to campus after partying up during the holidays. They are prone to hot streaks, cold streaks and hissy-fits.

For the most part, they have played in pre-Christmas tournaments in far-flung areas like Fairbanks, Alaska or Maui or the US Virgin Islands.

And after playing small, overmatched schools - even some Division II schools - in what amount to glorified practices, teams now get into the meat of their conference schedule where every game matters.

And if you put the right guiding hand over a group that responds in unison, you can have the Florida Gators of 2006. Last January, Florida was just 3-4 ATS against non-cupcakes as the Gators struggled to hit their stride.

But one angle has remained constant the past season or two for Florida: When they are big favorites, they seem to clamp down and take care of business on defense.

In the past 15 games where they have been favored by 8+ points, the UNDER has prevailed 13 times. That's right, a 13-2 edge to the UNDER.

They were also just 4-3 on the road, losing as small favorites at South Carolina, Tennessee and Florida State.

This year, some of the big tests have already happened. The Gators have already faced Kansas and Ohio State and they open January against lightweight Liberty.

The rest of the month looks like a good training ground, with the meat of the SEC conference schedule - Tennessee twice, Kentucky twice, LSU - all in February. The Gators leave the swamp just three times in the month and could be gathering momentum.

The month looks much tougher for North Carolina, another of the preseason favorites to advance deep into March Madness.

The Tar Heels have a two-week stretch mid-month where they play Virginia Tech (Jan. 13), Clemson (Jan. 17), Wake Forest (Jan. 24) and Arizona (Jan. 27) all on the road. Sandwiched around those games is a home date with tough Georgia Tech (Jan. 20).

It's a similar story for Ohio State, where freshman seven-footer Greg Oden started the season on the injured list. The Buckeyes have already had their high preseason ranking tested with games against UNC and defending champion Florida, and the tests just keep coming in January.

They play four straight games against teams in the Top 25 or hanging around the edges of it: Home to Indiana (Jan. 2) and Tennessee (Jan. 13) and away to Illinois (Jan. 6) and Wisconsin (Jan. 9). The Buckeyes are just 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS the past 10 meetings with the tough Badgers.

Facing Illinois, the home team has won 11 of the past 13 meetings, which could give an historical edge to the Illini. Oden gives a huge, towering edge to the Buckeyes.

Some other January angles to watch for

Arizona was 1-7 ATS last January.

Boston College is 14-2 SU in their past 16 January games and 12-7 ATS the past 19.

Pittsburgh has played nine OVERS their past 11 January games.

North Carolina has covered nine in a row heading into season as an underdog. They have bitten hard as the dog, winning outright seven of those nine times. Something to think about if you notice the oddsmakers at BetOnUSA.com have made the Tar Heels a rare underdog this month.

Duke cannot boast the same bad-dog reputation. In fact, the past 20 times the Blue Devils have been a small dog (four points or less), they have won outright just six times. Make them a dog of two points or less (going back to 1996) and they hardly bite at all (2-10 SU, 3-9 ATS).

Kansas is 10-4 ATS past 14 times as a fave of 8+ heading into games this December.

Florida is 13-5 SU past 18 vs. Georgia and the UNDER is 6-2 past eight meetings.

UCLA was 7-1 SU and ATS in eight January games last season. The Bruins play just seven January games this and also two at home (Jan. 18 and 20 vs. Arizona and Arizona State).

Duke is 19-1 SU past 20 home games in January, but they have covered just three of their past 10.